• ETHDAI opened at 4689.89 and closed at 4710.82, with a high of 4752.15 and a low of 4497.49.

• A sharp bearish reversal formed after 20:30 ET, followed by a late bullish recovery toward the 12:00 ET close.• Volatility expanded significantly during the last 6 hours, with a 5.8% drop in price followed by a 5.6% rebound.• RSI hit oversold levels at 27, but the rebound lacked confirmation from volume.• The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA on 15-min chart, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4689.89 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 4710.82 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 4752.15 and a low of 4497.49. The total volume over 24 hours was 178.19 and total turnover reached $837,058.66 (assuming

≈ $1.00). The pair experienced a sharp bearish correction after 20:30 ET and a late bullish rebound, suggesting mixed sentiment and potential exhaustion in both directions.

Structure & Formations

ETHDAI formed a key bearish engulfing pattern after 20:30 ET, with the 21:30 candle closing at 4691.19 after a high of 4693.34. A long lower shadow and bearish close signaled a potential reversal. Later, a bullish harami pattern emerged around 11:30 ET, suggesting short-term consolidation before the final 15-minute surge. Key support levels appear at 4688.34 and 4673.93, while resistance is likely forming at 4715.24 and 4732.00.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a potential death cross. The 50-period MA is currently at 4698.1, while the 20-period is at 4689.4, signaling bearish momentum in the short-term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 4700.0, and the 200-period MA at 4690.0. Price remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting long-term bullish bias remains intact for now.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line after 20:00 ET, indicating bearish momentum. However, the RSI reached oversold levels at 27 by 11:30 ET, followed by a rebound without strong volume confirmation. This suggests that the sell-off may be losing steam. The RSI currently stands at 55, suggesting neutral momentum. If the RSI crosses above 60 with increasing volume, a short-term bullish reversal may follow.

Bollinger Bands

Price action showed a notable expansion in Bollinger Bands width after 20:00 ET, with volatility increasing sharply as the pair dropped from 4732.0 to 4497.49. The close at 4710.82 places ETHDAI near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential overbought condition. A pullback toward the 20-period MA (4689.4) may be expected in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 21:45–22:00 ET and 05:30–06:00 ET windows, corresponding to key price swings. The largest single candle turnover occurred at 15:15 ET with $134,584.66, as the pair dropped from 4586.26 to 4557.85. Notably, the final 15-minute candle (12:00 ET) closed at 4710.82 with relatively low volume, suggesting limited conviction in the bullish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 4752.15 to 4497.49, the 38.2% level is at 4636.62 and the 61.8% level at 4584.11. ETHDAI closed near 4710.82, well above the 38.2% retracement. On the daily chart, retracements from the previous swing high (4717.17) to the low (4497.49) suggest key levels at 4661.94 (38.2%) and 4549.21 (61.8%). ETHDAI is currently above 38.2%, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for ETHDAI could focus on a trend-following approach using the 20/50-period moving average crossover as an entry trigger, combined with RSI levels for exit signals. Traders may enter long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI is between 30–50, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent support level (4673.93). The strategy could target a take-profit at 4732.00, the upper Bollinger Band. Given the recent volatility and mixed sentiment, this strategy might be more effective with a time frame of 1–4 hours and a trailing stop to manage risk during sharp corrections.