• Price action showed a sharp 7.8% rally from a 24-hour low near 107,756

to close above 111,100 DAI. • Volatility spiked with a 15-minute range of 3,210 DAI during the early morning hours. • A Gravestone Doji formed at 108,308 DAI before the morning surge, indicating indecision. • Momentum indicators suggest the rally may face pullback pressure near 111,500 DAI. • Turnover remained low until the late afternoon session, when large volumes confirmed the breakout.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) traded between 107,756 DAI and 111,220 DAI over the past 24 hours, closing at 111,126 DAI versus an opening of 108,525 DAI. Total volume amounted to 4.98 DAI, with notional turnover at approximately $552 million over the full period. The 24-hour window featured heightened volatility in the final six hours, with price surging from 108,308 DAI to a high of 111,220 DAI, driven by a large-volume candle at 110,285 DAI.

Structure & Formations

Price carved a bullish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart with a Gravestone Doji at 108,308 DAI, followed by a strong breakout. Key support levels identified include 108,300 DAI and 107,700 DAI, while resistance sits at 111,500 DAI and 112,000 DAI. The formation suggests that buyers may have re-entered the market following a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line, forming a bullish signal. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain in a descending order, indicating a broader bearish trend. However, the recent rally has brought price within 5% of the 50-day moving average, potentially setting up a test of the 111,500 DAI level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged above the signal line, reflecting a bullish momentum shift. The RSI stands at 62, suggesting moderate strength without reaching overbought territory. However, divergence in the last three candles between price and RSI could signal a potential short-term pullback. Traders should monitor the 58–60 RSI range as a possible oversold zone.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper band for the final four hours of the session, indicating heightened volatility. The bands had narrowed significantly before the breakout, forming a potential breakout pattern. If the current rally continues, the 111,500 DAI level may serve as a natural expansion point for the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged significantly in the hours between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, confirming the breakout above 110,000 DAI. Notional turnover increased in tandem, validating the move. However, a divergence in volume and price action in the final two hours of the session suggests that the rally may be facing profit-taking or short-covering pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 107,756 DAI to 111,220 DAI, key levels include 38.2% at 109,600 DAI and 61.8% at 110,470 DAI. The current price is near the 76.4% level, which may act as a temporary ceiling. A breakdown below 109,600 DAI could see a retest of the 108,300 DAI support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup—particularly the Gravestone Doji and breakout confirmation—this presents a suitable entry point for a short-term bullish strategy. The proposed backtest strategy would identify historical instances of the Bullish Engulfing and Gravestone Doji patterns within a defined timeframe (e.g., Jan-2022 to today) and assess their performance in similar market conditions. Using a widely supported symbol like BTC-USD or BTC-USDT would allow for a more robust analysis, ensuring that candlestick patterns and trade signals are accurately detected and validated.