Author：Odaily 星球日报
Original | Odaily Planet Daily@OdailyChina)
Author｜Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The unfair competitive advantage derived from insider information has long been a point of contention in prediction markets such as Polymarket.
Previously, in the context of the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds for related events on Polymarket showed unusual fluctuations in advance (see [link to article]).When war precedes news: How prediction markets "priced" the Maduro arrest operation six days in advance.(If that suspected insider trading could be explained by fluctuations in the "pizza index"), then...This time, it can be said that there is a mole within Polymarket, which can be considered as solid evidence.
The Israeli military is searching for "spies" within its ranks.
On February 12, The Jerusalem Post, Israel's largest English-language newspaper, reported that...On Monday, a Tel Aviv district court indicted an Israeli civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist, accusing them of profiting from betting on Polymarket using classified military information.The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe the action poses a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement released with the approval of the prosecutor's office, the suspect was arrested in a joint operation involving the Israeli State Security Agency (Shin Bet), investigative units under the Ministry of Defense's security agencies, and Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reservists are using classified information they have access to in the military to gamble on and profit from the timing of military operations.
Following the aforementioned investigation,The prosecution stated that it has obtained evidence of misconduct by the civilian and the reservist, and therefore decided to prosecute the two on charges of "serious security crimes," bribery, and obstruction of justice.At the same time, the prosecution requested the court to extend the suspect's detention period until the trial concludes.
In addition to the information already released above, further details of the case remain subject to legal restrictions, including the defendant's identity, the specific betting details, and the alleged flow of information.
Tracing the behavior of the mole
While we cannot ascertain the mole's true identity or account information, the X community had already discovered an account on Polymarket exhibiting clearly suspicious behavior. The Jerusalem Post also posted screenshots of the account's profits in its report.
As shown in the image aboveThe user, named Rundeep, entered Polymarket in June 2025 and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate in six predictions about Israeli military actions, five of which were made when the probability was below 50%, ultimately earning over $150,000.
It's worth mentioning that Odaily Planet Daily's investigation revealed that Rundeep had only one other misjudgment on Polymarket besides these "six wins in six battles," but the event predicted in this misjudgment was not directly related to Israel, but rather "whether the US military will take action against Iran before Saturday (June 21, 2025)"... It seems that allied intelligence is still not very reliable.
The real-world consequences of predicting the market are chilling to think about.
Due to Polymarket's open and permissionless nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform, which objectively provides a more convenient channel for those with an intelligence advantage to "monetize information."Driven by self-interest, those who possess an unfair advantage in information find it difficult to resist temptation, inevitably leading to insider treachery and theft of money.
If these things happened in conventional fields such as sports and entertainment, the impact would be relatively controllable. However, when such events occur in sensitive fields such as politics or even war, it is really hard to imagine what terrible consequences such insider betting incidents might bring.
Taking this article as an example, if the opposing forces had guessed the direction of Israel's actions in advance through insider betting on Polymarket, would it have had a significant impact on the subsequent development of the situation? Most people may find it difficult to empathize with Israel, but in fact, such events could happen to any entity.
In the traditional gambling sector,Political elections, legislative outcomes, wars, and other public affairs are usually subject to explicit restrictions. Predicting whether the market will be subject to similar regulatory restrictions in the future may involve a long-term regulatory game.
