Bitcoin has shown renewed bullish momentum in recent sessions, pushing price back toward the $97,000 level after weeks of persistent selling pressure. For much of the recent consolidation, the market struggled under distribution from short-term participants and cautious positioning from traders who remained uncertain about the broader trend.

That dynamic now appears to be shifting. While price action alone does not confirm a full trend reversal, the latest rebound suggests that downside pressure is easing and that buyers are becoming more willing to absorb available supply.

This improvement in price behavior is supported by on-chain context rather than pure speculation. A quick insight from a CryptoQuant analyst highlights a rare development in market sentiment: the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to 20, a level that has historically appeared only a handful of times over the past several years. Such readings typically reflect deeply pessimistic conditions, when bullish signals across multiple indicators are scarce.

Paradoxically, these environments often coincide with transitional phases rather than sustained declines. When bearish sentiment becomes widespread and measurable optimism disappears, markets tend to become increasingly sensitive to even modest improvements in demand.

Over the past six years, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen to levels of 20 or lower only seven times. The market is now experiencing the seventh occurrence, placing the current environment among the rarest sentiment regimes in Bitcoin’s history.

This index aggregates multiple on-chain and market indicators to assess whether conditions favor bullish continuation or reflect broad-based weakness. Readings near 20 indicate that very few bullish signals are active at the same time, highlighting a market dominated by caution rather than optimism.

Historically, such extremes have tended to appear during transitional phases. They often emerge late in corrections, when selling pressure has largely played out, but confidence has not yet returned. This does not guarantee an immediate reversal. However, it does suggest that downside momentum is becoming increasingly fragile, as most participants who wanted to de-risk have already done so.

The timing of this signal is particularly relevant as Bitcoin approaches a critical psychological zone near $100,000. This level represents both a major round-number resistance and a key reference point for short-term and long-term holders.

The coming weeks will be decisive. A sustained push toward and above $100K, accompanied by improving breadth in on-chain indicators, would likely mark a shift away from defensive positioning. Conversely, failure at this level could reinforce consolidation and prolong uncertainty.

Weekly Chart Shows Recovery Attempt Below Resistance

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to reassert strength after a prolonged corrective phase, with price now trading around the $96,000–$97,000 zone. This area is technically important, as it aligns with a former consolidation range that acted as support during mid-2025 and later flipped into resistance after the November breakdown. The recent rebound suggests buyers are willing to defend higher lows, but confirmation remains incomplete.

From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is still trading below the declining 50-week moving average, which currently caps upside attempts. This level has acted as dynamic resistance during previous bear-to-neutral transitions. And will be a critical area to reclaim for trend continuation.

Below the price, the 100-week moving average continues to slope upward and has provided structural support during the recent pullbacks. Reinforcing the idea that the broader market structure remains intact despite short-term weakness.

Volume behavior is also notable. The rebound toward $97,000 occurred without a major expansion in volume, revealing that the move may still lack strong conviction. This supports the view that the current advance could be a recovery leg within a larger consolidation rather than the start of an impulse.

If Bitcoin can consolidate above $95,000 and eventually reclaim the 50-week moving average, the probability of a continuation toward the $105,000–$110,000 region increases. Failure to hold this zone would expose the market to renewed downside tests toward the mid-$80,000s. Keeping the broader consolidation unresolved.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com