Author：Shenzhen Little Beauty Sol
ICP continues to struggle under a multi-week downtrend, with daily price action showing only minor stabilization attempts after a prolonged slide.
The market remains trapped below both short- and medium-term exponential moving averages, indicating that bearish momentum still controls the broader trend despite the appearance of localized support.
Recent daily closes show that ICP has attempted to form a short-term base in the mid-$3.70 range. However, the price remains decisively below the 9-day EMA, reflecting an inability to reclaim short-term momentum.
Daily chart for ICP/USDT (Source: TradingView)
The gap beneath the 20-day EMA is even more pronounced, signaling that the broader trend has yet to find a meaningful inflection point. Each time ICP attempts to rebound, sellers respond quickly, keeping the asset below levels typically associated with trend reversal attempts.
The MACD further reinforces that narrative. The indicator remains deep in negative territory, but what stands out is that bearish momentum appears to be easing, with histogram bars shrinking over the past several sessions. This suggests that while sellers remain in control, their strength may be waning — a dynamic that sometimes precedes consolidation phases or relief rallies.
Meanwhile, the RSI hovering around the low-40s shows the market in a weak but non-oversold state, underscoring indecision rather than capitulation.
Key Levels: Path Toward Resistance Remains Constrained
For bullish traders, the immediate challenge lies in reclaiming the first major resistance zone at $4.659. A breakout above this level would represent the first real sign of trend exhaustion among sellers.
Beyond that, ICP faces stacked resistance at $4.908 and $5.050, areas that align with prior rejection zones where liquidity tends to spike. These levels will require sustained buying pressure and a clear shift in sentiment to break.
On the downside, support sits far lower at $3.039, $3.009, and $2.977 — levels formed during previous capitulation periods. The wide distance between current trading ranges and these supports highlights how precarious the mid-$3 region could become if current stabilizing attempts fail.
A breakdown below those zones could trigger accelerated selling given the lack of nearby structural support.
ICP Order Book Walls Highlight a Fragile Market Structure
The order book adds a crucial layer of context. There are three significant bid walls that currently act as liquidity backstops:
- A sizable wall at $3.000 offers the nearest defense, but if it falls, models suggest ICP could slide more than 20%, exposing lower structural gaps.
- Deeper bid walls at $2.000 and $1.500 become relevant only in more severe downturns — but losing them could expose ICP to declines of 47% and 60%, respectively, suggesting a highly fragile downside structure if bearish pressure resumes.
On the upside, multiple ask walls pose obstacles to recovery. The first major wall appears at $4.210, and clearing it could unlock an 11% upside toward higher resistance.
A far larger wall sits at $5.000, which has historically acted as a psychological turning point for traders. Taking out this liquidity block could enable a powerful breakout, potentially carrying price more than 30% toward the next upper resistance level.
Bullish or Bearish Outlook?
Overall, indicators continue to lean bearish, but with early signs that downside momentum may be weakening.
The slowing bearish acceleration in the MACD, combined with slightly stabilizing RSI, hints that ICP may be gearing up for sideways action rather than immediate continuation of the downtrend.
Still, the inability to regain the 9-day EMA keeps bullish scenarios on hold until ICP proves it can sustain higher lows.
Potential ICP Trading Scenarios
For Long Traders:A compelling long entry would only emerge once ICP closes convincingly above the 9-day EMA, signaling short-term momentum has shifted.
More cautious traders may wait for a reclaim of the $4.659 resistance, which would confirm a structural trend reversal.
Potential exits lie near the $4.908–$5.050 corridor, though clearing the $5.000 ask wall will be essential for any extended rally.
For Short Traders:Short setups become attractive if ICP rejects the 9-day EMA again or fails to break through the $4.210 ask wall.
Bears may target the mid-$3.30 to $3.10 region initially, with deeper extensions only viable if the $3.000 bid wall breaks — a scenario that could accelerate a sharp 20% decline.
Risk management is critical given how quickly sentiment can shift on oversold altcoins.
