Author：Currency Explorer
After a disappointing 2025,The U.S. labor market has shown remarkable resilience at the start of the new year.The latest non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, not only allaying market concerns about a rapid economic recession but also prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path.Traders have fully priced in a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, previously expected in June.
US January seasonally adjustedNonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding the market median expectation of 70,000.This marks the largest increase since April 2025. The US January figure...unemployment rateIt recorded 4.3%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.4%, and a new low since August 2025.
The number of new non-farm jobs in November was revised from 56,000 to 41,000; the number of new non-farm jobs in December was revised from 50,000 to 48,000.The revised figure shows that the combined number of new jobs created in November and December was 17,000 lower than before the revision.
After the non-farm payroll data was released,Spot gold briefly plunged nearly $40.U.S. Treasury bonds fell across the board after the release of the non-farm payroll data. Non-U.S. currencies generally plummeted, with the euro falling more than 60 points against the dollar, the pound falling more than 70 points, and the dollar rising nearly 100 points against the yen.
The structural improvement in the job market is also evident.As a key indicator for measuring potential purchasing powerAverage hourly wageThe month-on-month growth was 0.4%, stronger than expected; the average weekly working hours also rebounded to 34.3 hours. In addition, the labor force participation rate rose slightly from 62.4% to 62.5%, and even the long-sluggish manufacturing sector finally "turned a profit," adding 5,000 jobs in January.
Bloomberg industry research strategists point out that the combined effect of increased wages and longer working hours is more crucial than simply an increase in the number of employed people.This is because it means that residents' spending power can be maintained, further increasing the possibility of a soft landing for the economy.
The revision of historical data reveals the true weakness of the US job market over the past year.
The Labor Department made a significant adjustment to its annual baseline, revising down last year's total employment figure by 862,000, exceeding the previous estimate of 825,000. The revised data shows that the U.S. is projected to add only 15,000 jobs per month in 2025.This level is "dismal" compared to previous years. This means that although the January data was strong, it was to some extent a rebound built on a very weak base from last year.
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